Key Indicators for Bitcoin and Crypto - Trading Week 15
- 7 minute read
The crypto market has been very bullish so far in the new trading month of April. In the wake of much lower-than-expected inflation data in the U.S., the price of Bitcoin (BTC), along with a rising U.S. stock market, continued the positive trend of recent weeks, reaching a new high for the year of $31,050. The second-largest cryptocurrency Ethereum also continued its price recovery as a result of the successful Shapella update. In addition to good economic data, the weakness of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) also had a positive effect on the entire crypto market. These developments are important for the Bitcoin price this week:
✔️ US housing market data;
✔️ Building Permits in the US;
✔️ Eurozone inflation data;
✔️ Minutes ECB meeting.
Table of Content
- US housing market data
- Building permits in the U.S.
- Inflation data for the eurozone
- Minutes of ECB meeting shed light on European Central Bank position
US housing market data
Today at 16:00 (CET), the National Association of Realtors will release the latest sales figures for existing homes for the month of March. This data is an important indication of the state of the US housing market. If the sales figures exceed experts' expectations, this indicates rising consumer spending and a stabilization of the U.S. economy. If expectations are not met, it would confirm a continued cooling of the housing market. In the previous month, sales figures were significantly above experts' forecasts and caused price gains in the US stock and crypto markets. If the published figures again exceed expectations, the U.S. dollar should fall further. Looking at the past, this has a positive effect on the price of Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market. On the other hand, if existing-home sales figures indicate renewed weakness and are even below the experts' forecast, the U.S. dollar could recover in an initial reaction and this could thus have a negative effect on the U.S. stock market and the Bitcoin price.
Building permits in the U.S.
On Tuesday, April 18 at 14:30 (CET), the Census Bureau will present the final number of building permits for the month of March. The number of permits issued is considered a leading indicator of the US housing market. Recently, the number of new building permits exceeded experts' expectations, indicating a slight recovery in the crisis-ravaged real estate market. However, compared to the previous month, analysts expect a decline from 1.55 million in March to 1.45 million in April. Following the release of the latest figures, the Bitcoin price reacted positively. If the number of building permits issued meet experts' expectations, this could lead to a price correction in US stock indices, which could also consolidate the crypto market.
Inflation data for the eurozone
Next Wednesday, April 19, consumer price data for the eurozone will start to be presented at 11:00 (CET). At the pre-release on March 31, inflation data came in at 6.9%. This was 0.2% below the expectation of 7.1%. For the final data as well, experts expect an inflation rate of 6.9%. If the expectation is met or even below analysts' expectations, the market is likely to be positively affected by prices in the stock and crypto markets, similar to the previous week after the release of declining U.S. inflation data. On the other hand, if consumer prices rise above analysts' expectations, it would be another setback in the fight against inflation in Europe. This could cause financial market prices to correct and have a negative effect on the price of Bitcoin.
Minutes of ECB meeting shed light on European Central Bank position
This Thursday, April 20, the ECB meeting minutes take center stage. At 13:30 (CET), the euro zone's top monetary watchdog will publish the minutes of the central bank's last meeting on March 16. Following the key interest rate hike of another 0.5%, market observers are hoping for more insight into the ECB's future interest rate policy. Any indication of less tight monetary policy from the European Central Bank in the future should have a positive effect on equity indices in Europe. Since Bitcoin reacted positively to the latest interest rate hike in Europe, it remains to be seen what impact maintaining the hawkish interest rate policy might have. Investors should keep an eye on the development of the euro-dollar currency pair. If the euro continues to strengthen, weakening the U.S. dollar, the crypto market could benefit and gain further strength.